With Nintendo Switch 2 Waiting in the Wings, Sales of the Original Switch and Its Games Continue to Tumble

Nintendo's hardware sales forecast has been revised downward again, with Switch console and game sales falling "below expectations." For the first nine months of the fiscal year, dedicated game console sales dropped 31.7% year-over-year to 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion), reflecting decreased sales of both the Switch and its software. Mobile and IP-related revenue also declined by 33.9% year-over-year to 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million), largely due to unfavorable comparisons with 2023's highly successful The Super Mario Bros. Movie. This resulted in a 27.3% year-over-year decrease in gross profit to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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Nintendo has again lowered its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, marking the second consecutive downward revision. The company anticipates even lower Switch hardware sales, reducing its projection by 1.5 million units to 11 million, and software sales by 10 million units to 150 million.

While sales declines were expected for the eight-year-old Switch, the drop is steeper than Nintendo initially projected. Nevertheless, the Switch has surpassed 150 million units sold, a remarkable achievement. While surpassing the PlayStation 2's 160 million sales may be unlikely, the Nintendo DS's 154 million sales record is within reach.

Nintendo characterized Switch and software sales in the third quarter (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable considering the platform's eighth year." Overall Switch family sales were down 30.6% year-over-year at 9.54 million units, and software sales decreased by 24.4% year-over-year to 123.98 million units. However, Nintendo highlighted strong sales of new titles: The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership reached 1.4 million sales.

Super Mario Party Jamboree stands out as a significant success. In its first 11 weeks (following its October 17, 2024 release), it outperformed previous Mario Party titles on the Switch.

Importantly, active Switch users are at an all-time high, with 129 million annual players in 2024, indicating continued engagement despite the console's age. Nintendo noted that while Switch unit sales declined, holiday season sales in some weeks even exceeded those of the previous year.

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Given the financial report, investors eagerly anticipate the Switch 2's release. Nintendo mentioned upcoming Switch titles: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20 release), and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (scheduled for 2025). The company reiterated the Switch 2's 2025 release date and plans a dedicated Direct presentation on April 2nd, along with global hands-on events.